August 23, 2024

 ANOTHER new low close in Corn.

I think the TRUE, final…and MAJOR Collapse

BEGINS FROM HERE.

You have no idea as to how BEARISH Corn IMMEDIATELY looks, sounds, and feels to me. I view today’s dead low close…a NEW CONTRACT LOW CLOSE…as potentially being followed by a serious gap lower Sunday night and/or Monday morning that WILL be the beginning of a “falling knife” sort of move that DOES end with Corn trading UNDER $3.00…and with it having done so within the next 4-6 weeks.

Even though the negative price action has the nation’s ag analysts obviously leaning bearish, they STILL are talking in terms of “the next support,” and “demand picking up,” and “not much downside left” etc., all of which are just their latest versions of, “We must be close to the bottom.” AND WE ARE NOT…I CONTINUE TO SEE CORN AND SOYBEANS GOING MUCH LOWER AND CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BEING SHORT BOTH OF THEM.

Believe me…when we DO get there? When these two markets have finally reached a long term low? I PROMISE YOU. ALL OF THOSE SAME PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN TOUTING THE BULLISH SIDE OF THESE MARKETS FOR TWO YEARS WILL SUDDENLY FLIP…AND, HONEST TO GOD, START TELLING FARMERS TO GO AHEAD AND GET THEIR CROPS SOLD…

And in a script I have seen played out at every major bottom for as long as I can remember, from one bearish day to the next, you’ll hear those  same analysts, with Corn maybe at $2.90 or something, say something like, “We’ve broken ‘major support.’ Corn is headed for $2.50! If you have any crop selling to do, do it NOW.” I swear. That IS the way this game plays out…with my point, RIGHT NOW being: Here we are on the lows…and I have YET to hear even one guy put a number on “where Corn is heading.” NOPE. NOPE. NOPE. They are ALL still, “looking for a rally.”

I certainly don’t know if it will happen, but I honestly would not be surprised to see a 30-35 cent down WEEK in here somewhere.

And boy oh boy…If this thing DOES gap down Sunday night, or DOES get down 5-7 cents by Monday morning, I think there is no telling how low we might be by mid-week…and then into Friday.

Cattle

In a similar vein, today's after-the-close USDA Cattle on Feed report was generally considered to be a bit on the bearish side. You NEVER  know with the meats, but IF Live Cattle were to gap open 2 cents lower on Monday, into new 4 month lows, I think odds go through the roof for some immediately BIG action that gets this collapse REALLY GOING.

I still consider Short Cattle as being the biggest trade on the board, and if you SEE this trade as I do, I URGE YOU TO   STOP THINKING, “ I OUGHT TO…,” AND GET YOUR PUTS BOUGHT NOW…

This option might be more expensive Monday morning, but if it is, to me, it just even more means, “GET ON NOW!”

Canadian Dollar

The Currency markets are, by many fold, the biggest market on the entire planet…And while the currencies can spend a lot of time doing nothing, when you do get one of them going…and you have a whole WORLD of international banks, brokerages, and currency exchangers jumping on board…BIG FAST MOVES CAN OCCUR…And that is what I think could be the case here…The Canadian closed solidly up 48 points today ($480 per futures contract), again into new 5 month highs, and as I continue to point out, the RECORD SHORT POSITION HELD BY HEDGE FUNDS MUST NOW BE IN A LOSS…And per Open Interest (total futures contracts in the Canadian), they do appear to have BEGUN covering those Shorts (BUYING), but they have a long, long way to go.

I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BUYING CALLS IN THIS MARKET…and CONTINUE TO THINK THAT JUMPING 400-500 POINTS FROM HERE…IN A MATTER OF WEEKS…WOULD BE NO SURPRISE AT ALL.

A SMART RECOMMENDATION?

For $2500, buy all three of these options as one “unit” comprised of three very diverse ideas. If I am dead wrong on all three, you will lose the entire $2500.

If I am dead wrong on two of them, and only one works just moderately, you still have a chance of coming out ahead.

Do the math yourself if I am moderately to fully right on two or all three.

I think all three will hit.

Contact me if you are interested in any or all of this…and I will be in front of the screen on Sunday night.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans, Cattle, Canadian Dollar