August 5, 2024

In this newsletter:

Corn, Soybeans, Cattle,

Treasury Bonds, Stock Market

I HAVE BEEN RECOMMENDING THE SHORT SIDE OF CORN AND SOYBEANS SINCE MAY, 2022…We began exiting all of our short positions today…and are moving to the sidelines. Where to get out of a winning position is always a tough call, but with Corn and Soybeans putting in something of a one day upside reversal…with just about every other commodity on the board getting crushed along with the freak out in stocks, and with the bulk of our options expiring in 3 weeks, I decided it just makes sense to step aside in both markets…and take a fresh look at what I think comes next.

The truth is, I seriously doubt that we are looking at the lows in either market. I still believe we WILL see $9.00 Soybeans and $3.00 Corn…and if either market makes new lows from here, even if it’s only a matter of days, or weeks, from now, I WILL BE RIGHT BACK ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH PUTS IN DECEMBER CORN AND NOVEMBER SOYBEANS.

Cattle Crushed Again Today…

The Cattle Complex got hit hard again today…By NO means do I think it’s “too late” to get on…as, in reality, what I think will be a 2-3 month collapse is now only one week old…Cattle WILL have “up days,” and when they do, YOU BUY PUTS…but you do have to have some sort of plan in place along those lines…Give me a call if you want to talk about how to do so…

Took Profit in Long Treasury Bonds

We ARE still long…just less so, and interested in buying ANY one to two day dip…

THE STOCK MARKET?

And yes, with Stocks freaking out, the Fed WILL lower rates quite soon, literally any day now…BUT…my guess is what you WON’T see immediately thereafter is the Stock Market turning back up…Far too many of those Wall Street nitwits, who were bearish the market to start 2024, and then climbed all over the bull side AFTER equities had rallied big for 3-4 months, are viewing the recent sell off as “a pullback,” “buying opportunity,” or “healthy correction,” and maybe it is…but just not anywhere close to here…And so I’d offer that when the Fed does make their move, and the market does jump (maybe), do NOT think, “Here it goes!” My guess is that any rally will be brief, or maybe nonexistent, and then Stocks will just keep on tumbling.

I might be dead wrong, but I seriously doubt that even the INEVITABLE Fed Easing we're about to see will just turn this market right back up...There are a zillion Wall Street geniuses who are hooked BIG TIME with loads of AI and Chip related stocks...along with all the individual investors who bought into the New York HYPE...and it's going to take more than just a few big down days to shake all that money loose...A LOT more I think...as America's public gets reamed by the banks and brokerage houses again.

Give me a call if you want to talk about any of this…I’d be VERY interested in what YOUR opinions might be…

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans, Cattle, Bonds