July 28, 2024

 Spot Soybeans down 38 cents Friday,

or $1900 per futures contract,

and their biggest down day in over 2 years…

With all of the four major row crops in the USA…Corn, Cotton, Soybeans and Wheat…also closing Friday at or into new contract lows, I cannot imagine that there is a farmer out there who didn’t watch ANOTHER gob of money (in the bins or in storage) disappear last week…And per what you can see on the charts following, I suspect that we have reached that bear market stage where those farmers, in fear of watching even more dollars evaporate, become an avalanche of sellers, while buyers sit on their hands…so yeah…more so than ever, I THINK WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SEEING BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS GO STRAIGHT, STRAIGHT DOWN…and CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BUYING PUTS IN BOTH MARKETS.

With all 4 major crops closing at multi-year lows Friday…with farmers still holding MASSIVE stocks of Corn and Beans, I firmly believe we have reached the point where the dam breaks…and selling starts accelerating from EVERYWHERE…Sitting on record quantities of Corn and Soybeans has been the equivalent of being in a losing trade…and from 44 years of being in this business, I absolutely know what the next stage of human behavior in this situation typically becomes, that being, “JUST GET ME OUT. SELL EVERYTHING!”…But when it comes to owning the real crop, that selling does NOT get done in just a day or two…And with this in mind, I look for the next 3-4 weeks in both markets to be relentlessly down…in a big way…and therefore continue to recommend buying puts in both markets.

I continue to recommend STAYING short the August contract, but with the August options having expired, being in August is strictly a futures trade from here.

There are two ways to go with Soybeans from here…using either the September or November contracts…

SEPTEMBER

NOVEMBER

And the same in Corn…There are two ways to go…

 SEPTEMBER

DECEMBER

I have no idea where these markets will open tonight, but DO think that Friday’s closes easily might inspire enough weekend sales by farmers to see both Corn and Soybeans opening decidedly lower…gapping down, in other words…which would likely mean the put options I’ve recommended may be more expensive than shown here.

At any rate…no matter how we start this next week of trading, I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND GETTING SHORT…and continue to tell you that it’s NOT too late to get on board. I was buying puts on Friday and will be doing so again tonight and/or tomorrow.

Call if you want to talk about any of this…or SHORT CATTLE…which I am getting more and more excited about.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans