June 28, 2010
There is no new way to say it. Soybean Oil once again looks poised to fall off a cliff…
If I had not seen it look like this so many times during
the past year, I would be screaming “SHORT THIS MARKET NOW!”.
Then on second thought, I remind myself that I have been on this trade for so long because this is a situation I do recognize as having enormous potential.
This business has an uncanny way of taking the best of ideas and grinding you down to the point you give up…then see your expectations finally become reality as you watch from the sidelines.
I DO still think this is an incredible, incredible trade. Furthermore, I have studied 1000’s upon 1000’s of charts and DO know, a market that does have this set up, more often than not, IS about to shift gears into an outright collapse. Yes, this is Bill Rhyne’s opinion but I’ll also say I don’t just pull it out of a hat. I have stayed, and stayed and stayed on this because I do believe being short, again, right now, can lead to making 5 or 10 times your money. Obviously, and the past year will bear witness to this, if I’m wrong, it can also mean losing 100% of what you have on the table.
Here are the latest prices for a couple of options that I
believe have major potential…
Take your pick…I’m not dreaming…This really is big leverage…
Here is a link to a study I put together back in March that I still think directly relates to this trade…
In reality, all of the markets spend a lot of time going nowhere. This has been an extreme case and I think the odds are therefore through the roof that a BIG move is imminent…especially considering the time of the year and the size of the crop that’s now out there in the fields.
The first estimate of this year’s USA soybean crop comes out Wednesday morning. I have no idea what the exact numbers will be, but with this market perched just around 8 month lows, I’ve seen surprises many, many times in this business and am fully aware that a bearish number could finally set this market seriously in gear on the downside.
I still think this market will end up in the mid-20’s…and will start heading there in a hurry any day now…
Give me a call if you’re interested,