June 21, 2019
I continue to see the Stock Market
heading much, much higher…
I think the possibility is growing that the G-20 meeting (beginning next Friday, June 28th) is going to produce some degree of positive news/headlines regarding tariffs and the trade war.
One of my oldest understandings as to how all markets act, is to have recognized that when you have a market dead on its highs, and there is ANY noticeable bearish sentiment out there…that if there is ANY noticeable contingent of genius top pickers…the odds then become extremely high that this market is not even close to stopping…In other words, what the markets don’t ever do (in my opinion) is top out when every analyst and his brother is calling for it to happen…If that were the case, every major downturn we’ve seen, during the 39 years I’ve watched this stuff, would have been followed by numerous Wall Street gurus crowing about how they “called the top!” And guys, from what I’ve seen, that ain’t ever been the case…To put it plainly, my observance has been that every time I could detect that the media was swarming with bearish top predictions, it undeniably meant: BUY THE STOCK MARKET.
And the sentiment now? With all of the stock market indices making news highs, or dead on their all time highs? I think what Wall Street currently thins is easily summed up by the five headlines below, specifically issued during just the PAST THREE DAYS, by FIVE of the major brokerages, all of whom are basically quite clearly saying, “SELL the market here,” or “Do NOT buy it.” And just to remind you, as I have documented for years in this newsletter, the supposed “experts” (you would think) at the brokerage houses are, year after year, pretty much horribly, horribly wrong in their broad market predictions.
All headlines below are either from the Marketwatch (in black) and CNBC (in blue) websites.
I mean, really, how much more of a bullish signal do you need?
Well here’s more…from various other sources since the beginning of June…Really…The media is jam packed with this sort of stuff…Can you possibly imagine that these blundering herds of bears are going to ALL be right?
And I believe, all this talk from every economist, talking head and brokerage house analyst in New York about a “Global Slowdown,…” is just total nonsense…just the latest version of the same negative/doubting crap that they’ve been slinging for YEARS…
So…I continue to say, “Buy the Stock Market.” Call me if you want information on either futures or call options in the Dow, S&P 500, or Nasdaq indices.
I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BUYING SOYBEAN MEAL HERE…
But what this quick newsletter is really about is the Soybean Complex…which I think is now poised for a dynamic move on the upside…During the past year, Soybeans have definitely taken the worst hit of all the ag markets that have suffered at the hands of DT’s trade war and tariffs…resulting in this market, in my opinion, now being THE crop in which virtually no one seems to have ANY bullish expectations…with which I totally, totally disagree…Aside from the fact that this year’s crop has gone into the ground extremely late (and is, in fact, not yet completely planted)…For various reasons, I think that “the Great Negotiator” has just about played this Trade War game as far as the country can stand, and that (face saving) positive news on that front will soon be forthcoming…with, as noted before, something along those lines potentially coming out of the G-20…which WILL, in my opinion, also be a STRONG contributing factor to the next leg up in Soybeans and Soybean Meal.
CHARTS AND A RECOMMENDATION
Technically speaking, after solid moves up in late May, both Soybeans and Soybean Meal have been consolidating sideways…and after rocking down for the past few days…and assuredly, I may be dead wrong…but I think there is a strong possibility, commensurate with next week’s G-20 meeting, (and who knows what with the weather forecasts), to see the beginnings of a further upside breakout.
Here are the big picture charts…And do understand that these are my impressions as to what could occur in either of these markets…that simply because they have moved in rather large percentages in the past does not mean they will continue to so…
And do be aware that prices of futures and options may easily have changed by Monday morning…
Give me a call if you are interested…
All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans and Soybean Meal.