May 25, 2022

 Maybe…Sure looks like the decline has started…

If you are looking for a top, it’s always good to see some evidence that the market HAS stopped going higher…and then see SOME sign of a downturn…and when you DO get that…You don’t sit there and “wonder if it can go higher.” Obviously it can, but anyone who thinks they can time this stuff perfectly is sadly mistaken. And that is where options are the perfect vehicle here…You buy puts with some time on them…and then you just wait…And most importantly, when the market DOES get going on the downside, you do NOTHING BUT SIT.

I THINK THE ODDS ARE THROUGH THE ROOF THAT THIS MARKET WILL NOT JUST GO SIDEWAYS HERE…IT EITHER GOES HIGHER…OR TOTALLY STARTS TO CRAP OUT…AND I DON’T THINK IT’S HIGHER. IT DOESN’T MEAN I WILL BE RIGHT BUT I CONTINUE TO SEE THIS AS ONE OF THE BIGGEST COMMODITY SHORTS EVER.

 Here’s a closer look…

And here is ONE example of why I DO look for 30-40 cents on the downside.

 Here’s an option I like here…

And here’s one with more leverage…Longer shot but presupposes that the move I am looking for WILL take place…Some of these might also be done in tandem with the more “sensible” Sept 72 put shown above…the idea being you might be profitably selling the 72 puts at some point and keeping the 65’s.

July, which is the current spot contract, closed down 1.33 cents today ($798 per future), and is now 8 cents off its high, having marked its lowest close in over a month. This is NOT the kind of action a bull market should be seeing when supplies are supposedly SO short, and when seemingly every analyst on the planet is talking like the “shortage” will be going on forever.

CONTACT ME AND GET SHORT. Nothing is ever certain in this game but it DOES look like the move is getting started…

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybean Oil