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April 28, 2015

 The Euro looks READY to MOVE.

More so than ever,

I Continue to Recommend Buying .

I literally could not begin to count the number of MAJOR CRISES  the trading world has focused on during the 35 years I’ve been in the futures business. And each and every one was accompanied by rampant sentiment that was supposedly undeniably bullish or bearish for various markets, and each one presented supposedly insoluble problems accompanied by the seemingly dire threat of varying degrees of catastrophe…BUT, invariably, they DO pass and I will also say, invariably, the markets have always shoved each “crisis” into the rear view mirror LONG before the talking heads ceased their fretting and made their long-after-the-fact declarations of, “All clear!”. In other words, the markets ALWAYS seem to take off opposite what all the fear mongers are predicting.

Without any doubt, today’s latest economic “crisis” concerns GREECE(!?) and what it supposedly means for Europe and the Eurocurrency…to the extent you don’t ever hear anything about Europe or the Euro without “Greece!” being included somewhere in the same sentence…which I find absolutely ludicrous. Really, isn’t it absurd to assume that the success or failure of the entire European Continent depends on what happens in this little tourist destination that only accounts for about 1% of Europe’s total GDP?

For sure, this story was something to think about 2 or 3 years ago when it first began to appear…but now? This is old, old, OLD news…Yeah, “Grexit” IS all over the headlines every day but I’ll say it again. Greece doesn’t matter. There are no longer ANY surprises to be had there and I’m pretty sure that every country, every bank, every government and every marketplace in Europe has already fully accounted for, or discounted, WHATEVER fizzling climax we get to this story that I’d now describe as nothing more than political soap opera. There are 500 million people in Europe. They have suffered through, and prosperously survived, two in-their-face World Wars, followed by almost 50 years of dealing with the Iron Curtain and a looming Soviet menace, and I therefore think it safe to assume this 2000 year old civilization can handle ANY outcome to this “crisis”.

In fact, if tomorrow morning the media’s worst “fears” were realized, and Greece did default on every debt it has…and was subsequently booted from the European Union…even though it would be the LAST thing all the yakadoodle “experts” would expect, I could easily imagine seeing an immediate upside explosion in the Euro, like 400-500 points in a single day, while the European equities markets were doing something of the same…And once again, for the 10,000th time, all the supposedly intelligent talking head chatter (posing as analytical “logic”) would be totally turned on its head…WHAT HAPPENS IN GREECE DOESN’T MATTER…Only my opinion of course, but it’s also an opinion I am quite comfortable in betting on…So, I REMAIN FULLY AND AGGRESSIVELY BULLISH THE EUROCURRENCY. I THINK WE WILL SEE, AT LEAST, A 10-15 POINT RALLY ($12,500- $18,750 per futures contract) WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 MONTHS…AND, IN REALITY, I THINK THE RALLY HAS ALREADY POTENTIALLY BEGUN…As I wrote in my opening paragraph, “the markets ALWAYS seem to take off opposite what all the fear mongers are predicting.”

I keep pointing it out, but Short the Euro appears to be the biggest speculative position in the world today, and if my own knowledge of trading history is any guide at all, it inevitably will culminate in all those shorts getting their financial heads handed to them…Markets DO reach a point where they are totally overloaded in one direction…where EVERYBODY who possibly could be “in”, IS “in”, and usually more than they should be…and the next, and only, thing that can happen is the market goes the other way…Really. Considering the unceasing onslaught of bearish news, who in the WORLD who ever would be short the Euro hasn’t already done so? AS I AM FOREVER REMINDING YOU, TRADING IS A GAME. IT IS NOTHING MORE THAN MOB PSYCHOLOGY GAMBLING ON THE SUPPOSED “VALUES” OF WISPY PIECES OF PAPER…AND AS IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN, THE MARKETS WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY FOOL THE SHEEPISH MASSES INTO PILING INTO ONE SIDE OF AN IDEA …AND THEN PROCEED TO TAKE ALL THEIR MONEY…AND RIGHT NOW, PER THE CHART FOLLOWING, THERE IS AMPLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT SHEEPISH FAVORITE IS SHORT THE EURO.

I keep showing you this because I believe it has enormous relevance…Sooner or later all those spec shorts WILL exit their positions…and I would be dumbfounded it they did so at a profit…as it’s just NOT how the markets tend to work…not that I’ve ever seen anyway.



Sometimes you are just waiting in the markets. There are times when you know you want to be in, and you “know” a market is pregnant for a move, and various factors give you indications that what you are expecting is maybe beginning to happen…but still there is nothing big going on…BUT,  this IS when you want to be getting in…when it looks like (in your eyes) something big is ABOUT to get started and the market does give you small reason to think it IS getting started…Not AFTER its starts popping and options values jump with it…AND I WOULD POINT OUT, IN SPITE OF THE ENDLESSLY BEARISH EURO HEADLINES (MINDLESSLY AND ABSURDLY FOCUSED ON NOTHING MORE THAN GREECE), THE EURO ACTUALLY MADE ITS LOW 8 WEEKS AGO…AND WITH IT NOW ON ITS HIGHS FOR THE PAST 2 MONTHS, I BELIEVE IT IS FULLY POISED TO ERUPT OUT OF HERE ON THE UPSIDE…AND BEGIN THE NASTY PROCESS OF BLASTING ALL THOSE SHORTS INTO FINANCIAL OBLIVION.

 This recommendation includes all fees and commissions.

chart: Interactive Data

If you have been reading my recent newsletters and maybe thinking this is potentially a strong idea…and have the risk capital….I would suggest you do something about it now, BEFORE it really gets cranked up…And more than ever, I absolutely recommend using exactly the 1 & 1 strategy I have outlined...Anything can happen in this stuff, but with the market so LOADED with speculators, the last thing I would expect  is “going nowhere” for the next few months, and if this thing isn’t going up, to drop back down 3 points and allow us to recoup 100% almost looks like a given (but obviously might not be).


Pick up the phone and call me. Most of my energy goes into research and writing this stuff. Sure wish I had a Sales Manager here. J





The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Eurocurrency


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