Here are some brief looks at all of the markets I have recommended....
My immediate and primary interest is in getting people short Copper, which is trading at historically very high levels.In the past, when bull markets in copper have ended, they have done so in dramatic fashion, with 40-50 cent crashes within a matter of months not being uncommon. I think this time around will be no different and would not be surprised to see copper 40-50 cents lower before (perhaps long before) 2005 has ended. For some excellent historical examples of how Copper breaks from historical highs, click here to go to our April 12th newsletter or access that newsletter in our Newsletter Archives.
I think this trade has already begun to happen and will probably develop no differently than all of the downturns indicated on the long term chart shown below. I would also point out that most futures contracts tend to fall much faster than they go up....With this in mind, I may be dead wrong but if you have an interest in this idea, it needs to be done NOW.
Sell Unleaded Gasoline
As I noted in my April 3rd newsletter, I think the real bull market in energy ended last year. In spite of all the press you see about how supply can't keep up with demand, I think this is a classic case of all the media/analysts screaming, "There isn't any left!", right when we are sitting on what may be the highs for a long, long time....I believe all the energy markets are going down, and will be led that way by Unleaded Gas over the next 3 to 4 months. I look for Unleaded to drop AT LEAST 30-35 cents between now and August.
Still Long Cotton
Following a 10 cent up move, Cotton traded sideways for about six weeks. Several days ago, it pushed hard into new recent highs and I believe it is now on its way up another 10-15 cents. I am not adding to this position. For those individuals who bought Cotton several months ago, my recommendation is to now just sit on what you own and see how far Cotton can go from here over the next 30-45 days....I think there is a good case for the next stage of this bull market to be much faster, and steeper, than the recent move off the January 31st lows.
Buy Treasury Bonds
I continue to believe Bonds are going a lot higher as long term interest rates fall. Nobody thinks this makes any sense so I won't waste time talking about it.....Here are the charts....
The following text and chart of Treasury Bonds went out by email on April 28th (two days after this newsletter was published):
April 28, 2005
This is a tough call, but for various reasons, I am temporarily liquidating all my long
Treasury Bond positions.
The Dollar has rallied several points since we recommended it, but truth
is, nothing much has happened. I continue to see this market a LOT higher and see the
September call options as having a lot of leverage.....
Out of NASDAQ
When you start a trade and it immediately goes the wrong way, which was recently the case with the NASDAQ, I have found it is best to just drop the idea and take a fresh look later. This is what I have done/am doing in the NASDAQ and other stock indices.
If you have any interest in any of these ideas, pick up the phone and call me.I would especially encourage you to look at the research on copper in my April 12th newsletter....Beyond that, if you do think the idea looks like a good bet (yes, that's what this stuff is), do not waste any time contacting me....Copper has been "suspended" here for several months now and, though I may be wrong, I walk in here every day expecting to see it down 4-5 cent overnight, just to start the day....
As always, if you know anyone who might have an interest in Futures, please do send them to the website.