April 8, 2019
Wall Street’s “slowdown”, if there was one, is YESTERDAY’S NEWS
ALL we have heard, for months now, is this nonsense about a world economic slowdown, implying (1) the “need” for interest rates to remain low…and… (2) that a weak economy should mean lessened demand for energy, therefore arguing that oil prices would remain low.
Well…Regarding energy, this has definitely NOT been the case, and point blank, I will tell you that it is highly likely that not 1 “analyst” in 50 predicted the $20 rally in Crude Oil we have had since the beginning of this year.
If this is true, it also means that not 1 interest rate forecast in 50 had this enormously important inflation factor…a 45% increase in the price of Crude Oil…plugged into their equations.
GET SHORT TREASURY BONDS
As I’ve documented in previous newsletters, when Bonds turn down, very frequently the decline is immediate, non-stop and BIG…which IS what I am looking for here…I believe this market, due to Wall Streets typical YESTERDAY’s thinking, IS totally out of whack with reality…but Bonds HAVE, I firmly believe, made their highs…and are now fully 10 point above where they ought to be…
I MAY BE DEAD WRONG BUT I SEE THIS MARKET EASILY, AND QUICKLY, TRADING DOWN INTO THE MID 130’S.
Buy this put…
Or this one…
I think this IS HAPPENING NOW…that Bonds have made the turn…and that these options WILL be worth every dollar I have indicated as a possibility…
And, as my obligation, I will tell you that if I am wrong, they could also become worth nothing…
I LOVE THIS TRADE…I am astounded every day that NOBODY sees this as I do…but then again, I also KNOW that this IS how the markets work.
Call if you want to know more…
All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Treasury Bonds