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February 28, 2025
TWO SHORTS I WILL NOT BE OUT OF….
SHORT GOLD – LOOKING FOR
A $400-$500 SELL OFF
It has been years since I’ve seen so many talking heads
and brokerage house shills SO bulled up on Gold…I mean, it seems like every
other headline on the internet is this or that Wall Street “strategist”
revising their Gold forecast higher and higher.
And let’s be clear, a year ago, when Gold
was $800 lower, they were NOT howling, “Buy now!” But today? They are all
dead certain it’s about to blow right past $3000 and you just “HAVE to own
Gold here!”
In
fact, the last time it was like this was December, 2012, when I was bearish Gold
and posted the following summary of HOW UNANIMOUSLY BULLISH
ALL of the brokerage house geniuses were…when Gold was trading
at $1675 an ounce…AND 3 MONTHS LATER IT HAD DROPPED BY 30%.
For real…All of those
experts were roaring bulls (same as now)…and
again, 3 months later it was 30% lower.
So that was then…And here below are just SOME of the
unanimously bullish opinions that I’m seeing everywhere of late. And I mean
it…During the
past few months, I don’t think I have EVER seen so many “Buy Gold”
recommendations…And I assure you, WHEN ALL THOSE WALL STREET “STRATEGISTS” ARE UNANIMOUSLY JUMPING UP AND DOWN,
IT IS NOT BULLISH. Quite the opposite.
Believe me. In spite of all the hogwash about being an
inflation hedge, or a safe haven, or “Central Banks are buying,” Gold is
NOT some forever bullish magic commodity. It IS just another symbol on the
board, and IT DOES HAVE BEAR MARKETS…sometimes for years, or even
decades…And that is what I think we are beginning now. Don’t kid yourself,
like all of these markets, in this GAME, there is a time to be getting
in…and a time to be getting out…And with everybody in NYC telling you “GET
IN NOW!”? I
FIRMLY BELIEVE IT IS TIME FOR THIS MARKET TO GO IN THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION…AND KNOW THAT, USUALLY, WHEN IT DROPS, IT DOES KNOCK OFF 25%+ IN
A MATTER OF MONTHS…AND IT COMES OUT OF NOWHERE.
GET SHORT GOLD…AND
SILVER…NOW.
And I do mean it…
THIS WEEK SOUNDED THE DEATH KNELL FOR CATTLE
Fats (Live
Cattle) got CRUSHED…
AND NEXT WEEK,
I THINK FEEDER BUYERS WILL ALMOST BE
NONEXISTENT…
The first 4 days of this past week saw modest rallies in
both Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle…once again driven by the absurd hype of
a few more steers with Screwworms being discovered in Mexico…but then
reality set in and the Live Cattle crashed 3.5 cents today, and totally
reversed the week’s upswing…AND CLOSED HARD INTO THE NEWEST LOWS
SINCE THE JANUARY 25TH TOP TICK…AND FULLY 15 CENTS OFF THAT
HIGH.
Why is this significant? Because, to start with, one
month ago, I can promise you that not 2 cattlemen out of a 100 would have
believed that Live Cattle prices could possibly drop 15 cents in February.
Everybody in the business was deliriously happy and bullish and thinking
the good times would go on forever…and therefore more than willing to buy
Feeder steers…at the highest prices in history…even though the ONLY way
they could avoid LOSING MONEY if Cash Live Cattle Prices keep rising…that
is, rising into even higher ALL TIME RECORD prices. And that is NOT what
has happened…In fact, that 15 cent lower move during the past month is
exactly the opposite of what they wanted/NEEDED…and disastrously so.
THE REALITY IS THAT ANYONE WHO BOUGHT FEEDERS
DURING THE LAST FEW MONTHS IS ALREADY LOSING SIGNFICANT MONEY…AND
EVERY SINGLE DOWN DAY FROM HERE…FOR THE NEXT 4-5 MONTHS…MEANS LOSING MORE
AND MORE AND MORE BIG DOLLARS…WHICH IS WHY I VIEW TODAY’S SURPRISING DEAD
LOW CLOSES (AFTER HAVING MADE NEW HIGHS FOR THE WEEK THIS MORNING!)
AS HAVING DESTROYED ANY IMMEDIATE HOPES OF “SAVING” ALL THOSE FEEDER
BUYERS WHO ARE ALREADY UNDERWATER.
AND WHAT COMES NEXT?
For one thing, if you buy Feeders at today’s lower
prices, same as one month ago, you STILL will be buying steers that STILL
will only avoid losing money if prices go up again toward those record
highs…And so…When you put that together with the all of those previous
buyers…already losing money…I can only assume that the obvious consequence
is that, NEXT WEEK you can bet that some number of normal buyers will NOT
be showing up. Plainly
stated, as I have been predicting, at some point I believe you will have a
genuine “vacuum” of Feeder buyers…and Feeder Cattle Futures will then do
what history shows they have done forever, which really and truly is, GO
RELATIVELY STRAIGHT, STRAIGHT DOWN.
IN FACT, I WOULD
ALMOST SAY BUYERS COULD BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT NEXT WEEK.
I CONTINUE TO
RECOMMEND BEING SHORT BOTH FEEDERS AND LIVE CATTLE, BUT ESPECIALLY THE
FEEDERS. And if you have any inclination to take this recommendation, I’ll
scream it: DO IT NOW.
I don’t just drawn these moves
at random…This IS what I am looking for…and this IS what 50 years of
history indicates as a NORM for this market…The truth is, EVEN THE 260 PUTS AT 1.50 CENTS, OR $814 EACH,
ARE VERY INTERESTING TO ME.
I might be dead wrong, and if I am it probably means
losing everything you put on this idea…BUT I ABSOLUTELY 150% BELIEVE THAT
THE LAST FEW WEEKS HAVE ESTABLISHED THIS MAJOR TOP…AND IF THAT IS
CORRECT…THEY WILL JUST COLLAPSE FROM HERE. THAT IS
THE WAY THIS MARKET TRADES.
Do something with it. Contact me…THE CATTLE MARKET HAS TURNED.
Don’t miss this.
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Gold, Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle
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