February 22, 2024

 New Lows again…

And accelerating I think…

Influenced by herds of bullish analysts who have non-stop spewed nothing but a bullish slant towards Corn and Soybeans for the past 18 months, farmers have watched billions of dollars disappear as they held on to their crops instead of selling them at formerly MUCH higher prices. And now, with both markets continuing to make new lows, and with loans coming due from planting last year’s crop, and with simply needing the money to get started on planting their 2024 crops…AND…beginning to fear even lower prices, I HAVE ZERO DOUBT THAT FARMERS ARE WORRIED SICK AND ABOUT TO START SELLING THEIR CORN AND SOYBEANS.

And I continue to believe that the BIG ONE is starting to happen in Soybeans…Wheat has dropped by 60%, Corn by 52%...and Soybeans are still only down 35%. On top of that, with Corn at $4.00 and Soybeans at $11.50, Beans are $7.50 higher than Corn…or almost triple the value! And  knowing that Corn, Wheat and Soy DO perennially move somewhat in unison, in the simplest of terms, Soybeans have a LOT of catching up to do…And I think it is coming now…RIGHT NOW…AS THEY FALL OUT OF THIS 2 YEAR RANGE…WHICH, I BELIEVE, TO HAVE THEM BACK IN LINE WITH WHEAT AND CORN, MINIMALLY MEANS HITTING ABOUT $9.00.

Years ago, I determined that there was one chart that was...in my opinion...THE most high probability predictor of future direction AND a big, big move. And while this does not in any way insure that this market is about to do what I expect, that I might be dead wrong, I WILL TAKE THIS TRADE EVERY TIME I SEE IT.

On a related note, as I have said forever, when you ARE at a bottom, NOBODY will even be thinking, “This could be it.” And so when I keep seeing stuff like this blurb from the wires this yesterday morning all over the place?

 2-21-24 – Yesterday

 0903 ET - Yesterday's talk of a bottom being found in CBOT grains after spending the start of the year in decline appears to lack legs--with the expectations of ample crop supplies for the upcoming crop year keeping any momentum in grains in check. "It's going to take a massive fundamental shift to turn the tide and bring the grains off lows; speculative funds continue to push the market further into the net short position overall. The CFTC reported larger net short positions for corn and soybeans Friday, but some analysts note that the rate grain futures are sinking has slowed--suggesting an upcoming rebound.

With every analysts and his brother now/STILL talking about a bottom here, with their latest “reasoning” being, “The funds are too short. These markets MUST be facing a short covering rally!”, I REMAIN FULLY BEARISH BOTH SOYBEANS AND CORN.

We have been short for $2.00 now…but actually, RIGHT HERE IS WHERE I THINK THE REAL TRADE BEGINS…If you’re already short, Get More…And if you’re not in…I keep saying it, IT’S NOT TOO LATE TO GET SHORT…Again, and I might be dead wrong, I think this thing is JUST GETTING STARTED. As one of my trading reminders states: THE BEST WAY IS GOING WITH IT… that it’s not necessarily where, or at what price, you get in…it’s WHEN you get in and what the market does next.

Call if you want to know more…Lots of ways to do these…

Thanks,

Bill

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866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans