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February 18, 2025
I hope you will give this
a complete read…It’s brief…and mostly just about the numbers.
Still SCREAMING it…
GET SHORT CATTLE
We have seen the highs for years to come….
I AM BANGING
AWAY SO HARD ON THIS, EVERY DAY, BECAUSE WE DO HAVE WHAT I SEE AS “SOLID
EVIDENCE” OF A MARKET TOP.
…AND BECAUSE
ONE OF MY CORE BELIEFS IS, AND SOME OF YOU WILL “GET” THIS: THERE
IS AN OPTIMAL TIME IN BIG POTENTIAL SHORT TRADES WHEN YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO BE INITIATING POSITIONS, WHICH, INEVITABLY, IS WHEN NOBODY ELSE
WANTS TO, AND USUALLY A LONG, LONG TIME BEFORE ANY SHARP DECLINES EVEN
BEGIN TO SUGGEST WE’RE IN A BEAR MARKET.
…AND BECAUSE I
BELIEVE THAT THE IDEA OF THE CATTLE MARKET, WHICH HAS A 50 YEAR HISTORY OF
REPEATED BIG, SHARP CRASHES, JUST SITTING UP HERE SIDEWAYS…AT THE HIGHEST
PRICES IN HISTORY…DUE TO THE HERD BEING “THE SMALLEST SINCE 1961,” IS JUST
PLAIN STUPID (OR NAÏVE TO USE A NICER WORD). I KEEP SAYING IT…I’VE
SEEN THIS BULL MARKET SCRIPT OF “IT CAN’T REALLY GO DOWN” 100’S OF
TIMES…AND THE OUTCOME IS ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS THE SAME…WHETHER IT’S $150
CRUDE OIL, OR $2.50 COTTON, OR $1800 LUMBER, OR $18 SOYBEANS…OR WHATEVER.
THEY ALL DO TURN DOWN, PRECISELY WHEN NOBOYD IS
LOOKING FOR IT, AND THEN GO DOWN MUCH MORE THAN ANYBODY EVER THOUGHT
POSSIBLE.
AND ONE MORE REASON?…BECAUSE SO VERY, VERY FEW AMONG YOU WANTS
ANYTHING TO DO WITH THIS…And after 45 years doing this, it may
sound absurd, but that, in itself is, for me, a MAJOR, MAJOR “TELL.”
Here’s today’s info…
So…While the market has
shown a turn, and is still only about 10 cents under its highs, here is one
way to start…
And IF this April
260 put loses money, it can
only mean that the market is still at record levels…and you then move out
to August…because you may have lost 3 cents…but you are still looking for
60 on the downside.
The truth is, absolutely
the most difficult part of this game plan will be: When it does start
happening, being able to sit tight and LET IT HAPPEN...all the way down…to
not be thinking, “Oh boy! My $1500 has become $3500! I’d better grab it.”
For real…Since the January 29th
all-time high, Feeders have already seen a 15 cent
drop ($7500 per futures) in just 7 trading days…before creeping back up 5-6
cents during the past week or so. I URGE YOU
TO USE THIS SMALLISH RALLY TO GET PUTS BOUGHT…to not sit
there waiting for some perfect signal that reassures you that, “Bill might
be right.” GET SHORT NOW…AGAIN…INTO THIS RALLY.
Either use the April 260
recommended above, or the May 260 shown here…or a combination of both.
There is never anything wrong with buying more time.
Stop just looking…I can
assure you that one of these newsletters could be showing up SOON with a
headline something like, “Feeders down 18 cents during the past week!”, and
still begging you to wake up and “get short, even though we’re now 30 cents
off the highs.” Really…If you think this trade does make sense, DO
something about it.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
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