February 17, 2015
A highly leveraged “portfolio”
Buy the Eurocurrency
Short Feeder Cattle
As outlined yesterday, I absolutely recommend taking positions in ALL four of the markets shown here. Do not try to pick and choose. Treat them as one unit. Spend the money, about $8200. Forget you own them for 60 days…Really…THEN start checking to see what the results are looking like.
I am pushing hard on this right now as I think we have pretty much gotten past all the financial media BS about “what January means” and many commodity markets are now ready to make some BIG moves…And right or wrong, my very definite opinion is these four markets ALL have immediately explosive potential. Maybe they will all still be here 2-3 weeks from now, but I do not, at all, think this will be the case. I recommend taking all four positions…here and now.
So here they are…with what they cost and where I think they could be heading in coming months…and, of course, what that could mean in real Dollars.
The Euro, in spite of all the nonstop talking head bearish chatter, may have made its low 3 weeks ago…
Everybody is bearish but Cotton made new 5 month highs today…?
The whole ag world is roaringly bearish but Soybeans actually made a very big low back in early October…Up 17 cents today and looking like they may be ready to move.
And Feeders look like they are seriously sitting on a cliff…Down 200 points today…I think they are definitely on the verge of accelerating sharply lower.
At these levels, all 4 options cost $8206….There are MANY permutations as to how this “portfolio” could work out in the coming months…Here are a few…
If all 4 don’t go anywhere, you will lose the entire $8206.
I believe the potential targets I have put on the charts are realistic…from just working a little, to working fairly well…but none of those targets shown are what I would call a monster move.
If 1 works moderately, and the other 3 are total busts (if you get NOTHING for them), you have a decent chance at still getting back more than the $8200.
If 2 of them work moderately (my middle target) and 2 are total losers, I don’t think it would be unrealistic to be pushing $20,000.
Get 2 moderately right…and 1 that really gets going…and 1 dead wrong? Who knows where you end up?
Or I am right on all 4?
Like I said, there are many possible outcomes here…Ranging from just totally dead wrong on everything, to having all four make SOLID moves in the direction I am trading them…And to suppose I CAN hit on all four is not, I believe, pie-in-the-sky optimism. I don’t EVER care which way any market is going. I have no preference for the long or short side…All I am ever trying to do is find what I think are explosive situations, with what I perceive to be above average odds, in which the leverage we have truly allows me to shoot for fairly major profits…And that is what I think I have here; FOUR MARKETS WITH EXPLOSIVE POTENTIAL, AND WHAT I WOULD CALL EXCELLENT ODDS FOR SOME DEGREE OF SUCCESS.
I encourage you to do the numbers yourself…and I assure you that none of those potential objectives represents an off-the-wall, totally outlandish possibilities. Every one of those targets is what I would easily classify as “normal” for those four markets…and I would add, I THINK ALL FOUR ARE AT AN “ANY GIVEN DAY” POINT OF REALLY TAKING OFF. As always, this is my opinion. Maybe wrong. Maybe RIGHT.
Pick up the phone if you want to know more…
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE
All charts use data from Interactive Corporation.
All option prices include all fees and commissions.