January 19, 2010
OK, yes, I am screaming this now…I’ve been here before, all battered and bruised and the trade just looks incredible, the leverage is MAJOR and the odds have gone sky high (in my opinion) this market is about to collapse…and it’s HARD to really step up to the plate after you’ve been whiffing for, my God, a year (?)…But that’s what this stuff is about, just being able to stay in the game until the truly fat, sweet pitch comes down the pipe…and then being able to pull the trigger one more time.
I may be dead, dead wrong, but my befuddled 29 ½ years in this insanity tells me this has set up to be a truly monster, monster trade…Markets DO tend to go down faster than they go up…Big consolidations ARE often followed by even bigger moves…The Soybean complex is NOT just going to lay around here another entire crop year at these historically high levels…And farmers, worldwide, HAVE ramped up production to record levels…
Here are some options you might consider…Decide for yourself whether you think there is enough leverage in this trade…whether the risk appears to be worth the potential reward.
Give me a call if you want to know more…
GET ON THIS GUYS…It sure looks like it is now starting to move…If you want more, let’s get it now…
Here’s a close up…
Here’s the bigger picture…Going all the way out to July, almost six months for this thing to work…three different possibilities…
Here’s the 2 and 1…Tell me this won’t go one way or the other, enough to either recoup 100% on the upside, or enough to get at least a triple on the downside…Sure, this market COULD just meander around another 6 months and finish between 37 and 38, in which case both options would be worthless if you stayed in right up to expiration…But what I see is even the past year’s sideways action has still meant 7-10 cent swings, which again, is all we need to recoup 100% or be looking at 2-3 times our money.